US manufacturers have now mostly worked their way through their backlogged orders — and that means job cuts could be on the horizon as soon as this year.美国制造商现在大多已经处理了他们积压的订单，这意味着他们最快在今年就会裁员。Those orders, which accumulated because of supply chain disruptions in the early days of the pandemic, have helped keep the manufacturing industry mostly insulated from the mass layoffs seen in other sectors, like technology and finance.这些订单是由于新冠疫情早期供应链中断而造成积压，积压的订单让制造业基本免受技术和金融等行业大规模裁员的影响。Supply chains, which clogged up during the pandemic, have improved considerably in the past year, and manufacturing backlogs are dwindling fast. Meanwhile, demand for manufactured goods has fallen in recent months as consumers and businesses pulled back on purchases in favor of experiences such as travel and dining out.在疫情期间遭阻塞的供应链在过去一年里有了很大的改善，制造业积压的货物正在迅速减少。同时，近几个月以来，消费者和企业购买量下降，转而选择旅游和外出就餐，对制造品的需求也有所下降。An analysis by Wells Fargo economists provided to CNN shows that unfilled orders of core capital goods adjusted for inflation, or backlogs, are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels within the next five months. And surveys from the Institute for Supply Management show that the manufacturing sector has been contracting for several months, while fewer manufacturers report an increase in backlogs.富国银行经济学家提供给CNN的一份分析报告显示，经通货膨胀调整的核心资本货物的未交付订单，即积压订单，预计将在未来五个月内恢复到疫情前的水平。而美国供应管理协会的调查显示，制造业已经连续数月萎靡，而报告积压订单增长的制造商更少。While softer demand has allowed manufacturers to reduce their backlog, once it runs out and demand remains subdued, companies will begin to consider reducing their workforce, said Shannon Seery, an economist at Wells Fargo.富国银行的经济学家夏农·西里说，虽然需求疲软能使制造商减少积压，但一旦积压货售罄，且需求持续低迷，企业将会开始考虑裁员。However, she noted: “All of last year we saw the level of outstanding backlog come down, so that and this hit to demand will make firms decide whether to pull back on their capital expenditures, or begin to lay off workers in an effort to protect profitability.”然而，她指出：“去年全年，我们注意到未完成的积压订单减少，因此，这一现象和对需求的打击将使企业决定是否缩减资本支出，或者开始裁员以保护利润率。”Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key measure of business investment, declined in four of the seven months through February, according to data from the Department of Commerce. Overall orders for durable goods, such as appliances, cars and furniture, fell in three of the past four months through February.根据美国商务部的数据，除飞机外的非国防资本货物订单，其作为衡量商业投资的一个关键指标，在截至2月份的七个月中，有四个月出现下降趋势。在截至2月的过去四个月中，家电、汽车和家具等耐用品的总体订单有三个月出现下降趋势。Data gauging the manufacturing industry’s health has been mixed. S&P Global’s manufacturing index for April showed an improvement for the first time in six months, but manufacturers still expressed “some concerns regarding a shift away from goods towards services among customers following the end of the pandemic,” according to the report released on Friday.衡量制造业健康状况的数据好坏参半。标准普尔全球公司4月份的制造业指数显示，六个月来制造业首次出现改善，但周五发布的报告显示，制造商仍对“疫情结束后客户从商品转向服务”表示担忧。Manufacturing saw job losses in February for the first time in 21 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There were additional manufacturing job losses in the following month.劳工统计局的数据显示，制造业在2月份出现了21个月以来的首次失业现象。在接下来的一个月里，又会有更多的制造业工作岗位减少。Already, 3M announced earlier this year that it is cutting 2,500 manufacturing jobs globally because of weakened consumer demand and disruptions in its operations overseas. Dow Inc. also announced thousands of layoffs at the beginning of the year.今年早些时候，3M公司宣布，由于消费者需求疲软，海外业务中断，3M公司将在全球范围内裁减2500个制造业岗位。陶氏公司也在年初宣布裁员数千人。“Given how difficult it has been to find labor and keep it, manufacturing companies are going to do everything they can to try to avoid layoffs,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez. “But I think they can only do that for so long, so they will eventually have to bite the bullet and start laying people off.”“鉴于招聘员工和留住员工的困难程度，制造业公司将尽其所能，试图避免裁员，”Maria Fiorini Ramirez的首席美国经济学家约书亚·夏皮罗说。“但我认为他们只能做这么久，所以他们最终将不得不咬紧牙关，开始裁员。”
- backlogged [ˈbækˌlɔgd]：积压的
- insulate [ˈɪnsəleɪt]：使隔离，使孤立; 使绝缘
- dwindle [ˈdwɪndl]：减少，变小，缩小
- subdue [səbˈdu]：征服; 克制; 制服
编辑：ETTBL
翻译：Shaw Henry
