Home buyers have proved to be mortgage rate sensitive, with home sales over the past year tanking as rates have surged, and improving during periods when rates have ticked down. The past year has shown that as monthly mortgage payments decline, demand goes up.事实证明，购房者对房贷利率十分敏感，过去一年的房屋销售额随着利率的升高而下降，而在利率下降的时期销售额有所回暖。过去的一年表明，每月房贷支付的减少会刺激购房需求的增加。But a new study shows that 5.5% may be the magic mortgage rate that gets things moving in the market, according to analysis from John Burns Research and Consulting, which specializes in the housing industry.但一项新的研究显示，研究住房行业的专家约翰·伯恩斯研究和咨询公司的分析指出，5.5%的利率可以活跃市场，对房贷来说可能是一个神奇的数字。Mortgage rates more than doubled over the past year, reaching as high as 7.08% in November, according to Freddie Mac’s average weekly mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan. Since then the rate has declined by almost a full point, and currently sits at 6.27%.房地美30年固定利率贷款的每周平均房贷利率显示，房贷利率在过去一年中增加了一倍多，在11月高达7.08%。自那时起，该利率几乎下降了整整一个点，目前达到了6.27%。Many homeowners who bought or refinanced into ultra-low mortgage rates during the past few years are reluctant to sell and become a home buyer at a much higher rate. This is keeping inventory historically low.许多房主在过去几年购买或贷款买下的超低利率的房子不愿意将其出售，不然将会以更高的利率买房，这就使得房子的库存保持在历史低位。Over half of people in a survey of 1,300 homeowners and renters with household incomes of $50,000 said that now is not a good time to buy a home. Only 22% reported it being a good time to buy.经过对1300名家庭收入在5万美元的房主和租房者的调查发现，超过一半的人表示现在不是买房的好时机，只有22%的人称现在适宜买房。The survey found that 5.5% mortgage rates seem to be the tipping point.调查发现，5.5%的房贷利率似乎是一个临界点。A majority of respondents — 71% — said they are not willing to accept a mortgage rate above 5.5%. Meanwhile, 62% of consumers believe a historically normal mortgage rate is below 5.5%.71%的受访者表示他们不愿意接受高于5.5%的房贷利率。同时，62%的消费者认为正常的房贷利率应在5.5%以下。“Our consulting team has witnessed this across the country, noting that home builders who choose to subsidize buyers’ mortgage rates, bringing the overall rate down below 5.5%, have been achieving the most success,” CEO John Burns and Maegan Sherlock, a senior research analyst, wrote in an note about the findings.“我们的咨询团队在全国范围内证实了这一点，咨询团队发现，那些选择补贴性的房贷利率的建筑商取得了巨大成功，因为他们使整体利率降至5.5%以下，”首席执行官约翰·伯恩斯和高级研究分析员梅根·谢洛克在一份调查结果的说明中写道。They report that low inventory in the existing home market is helping new builders tremendously.他们报告说，当前房屋市场的低库存对新的建筑商有极大的帮助。“Paying as much as 6% of the mortgage amount to buy down mortgage rates has been relatively painless since builders had previously raised prices so much,” the researchers write.“支付多达6%的抵押贷款金额来还清房贷利率，相对来说不痛不痒，因为建筑商之前已经把房价提高了很多，”研究人员写道。The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the average 30-year fixed rate to settle at 6.1% and Wells Fargo at 6.2%, in the second quarter. Fannie Mae and the National Association of Home Builders had the highest forecasts of 6.6% and 6.56%, respectively.房贷银行家协会预测，第二季度30年固定利率平均为6.1%，富国银行为6.2%。房利美和全国住房建筑商协会给出的预测最高，分别为6.6%和6.56%。Furthermore, 5.5% is lower than the historical average for mortgage rates. Historically, the average rate between 1971 and 2023 has been 7.75%, according to Freddie Mac. Average rates reached as high as 18.83% in October 1981 and as low as 2.65% in January 2021.此外，5.5%低于房贷利率的历史平均水平。根据房地美的数据，1971年至2023年的平均利率一直为7.75%。1981年10月的平均利率高达18.83%，2021年1月低至2.65%。 词汇小结：
