Inflation, higher rates stifle development
Global economic growth is projected to slow from the 6 percent of 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022, and 2.7 percent in 2023, when there is also a chance of it falling below 2 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday.根据国际货币基金组织周二发布的《世界经济展望》，全球经济增长预计将从2021年的6%放缓至2022年的3.2%，2023年的2.7%，届时也有可能跌破2%。The quarterly report said that the sharpest economic activity slowdown in 80 years has been shaped by the highest inflation in decades, tightening financial conditions in most regions, the conflict in Ukraine and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic.这份季度报告指出，80年来经济活动最大幅度的放缓是由几十年来最高的通货膨胀率、大多数地区的金融条件收紧、乌克兰冲突以及挥之不去的新冠疫情造成的。In a discussion on Monday with World Bank Group President David Malpass, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the risk of recession has gone up.在周一与世界银行行长戴维·马尔帕斯的讨论中，国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃表示，经济衰退的风险已经增加。The weeklong annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, which started on Monday, are being held in person in Washington for the first time since the pandemic started.为期一周的国际货币基金组织和世界银行年度会议于周一举行，这是自疫情以来首次在华盛顿举行。"We have calculated that the equivalent of about one-third of the world economy would have at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth this year and next year, and that the total amount that would be wiped out by the slowdown of the world economy is going to be, between now and 2026, $4 trillion," Georgieva said."我们预计，相当于约三分之一的世界经济将在今年和明年至少连续两个季度出现负增长，从现在到2026年，因世界经济放缓而下降的总额将达到4万亿美元，"格奥尔基耶娃说。That is the size of Germany's gross domestic product gone, she said.The IMF report said that, for many emerging markets and developing economies, the sharp appreciation of the US dollar adds significant domestic price pressures and to the cost-of-living crisis.国际货币基金组织的报告指出，对许多新兴市场和发展中的经济体来说，美元的急剧升值加剧了国内物价压力和生活成本危机。Georgieva said that strong action is needed to contain global inflation, which is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022, but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023.格奥尔基耶娃表示，需要采取强有力的行动来控制全球通胀，预计全球通胀率将从2021年的4.7%上升到2022年的8.8%，但在2023年将下降到6.5%。Malpass said that currency depreciation will make debt levels for developing countries more burdensome, and the rise in interest rates adds to that pressure. Inflation is still a major problem for everyone, but especially for the poor, he said.马尔帕斯说，货币贬值将使发展中国家的债务水平变得更加沉重，而利率的上升则增加了这种压力。他说，通货膨胀对每个人来说仍是一个重要问题，对穷人来说尤其如此。In a poverty report released last week, the World Bank estimated that the pandemic pushed about 70 million people into extreme poverty in 2020, the largest one-year increase since global poverty monitoring began in 1990.上周发布的一份贫困报告中，世界银行预计，此次疫情在2020年将约7000万人推入极端贫困，这是自1990年开始全球贫困监测以来最大的一年增长。Malpass said that the advanced economies are taking a lot of the world's capital in the form of fiscal deficits, by heavy borrowing by big corporations and by the central banks themselves, buying only the bonds of the very advanced countries, which puts a strain on development from the macro side.马尔帕斯说，发达经济体正在以财政赤字的形式，通过大公司的大量借贷和中央银行本身，拿走世界上大量的资本，购买发达国家的债券，这从宏观方面给发展带来了压力。The IMF foresees China's overall GDP growth aligning with the global projected pace in 2022, but it is expected to rise to 4.4 percent in 2023. The revisions are 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point lower than projected in July.国际货币基金组织预计，中国的整体GDP增长在2022年与全球预测速度一致，但预计在2023年将上升到4.4%。修订后的数据比7月份的预测低0.1和0.2个百分点。Growth in the US is forecast to decline from 5.7 percent in 2021 to 1.6 percent in 2022 and 1 percent in 2023, with the fourth quarter of showing no year-on-year growth.美国的增长预计将从2021年的5.7%下降到2022年的1.6%和2023年的1%，其中第四季度没有同比增长。US growth in 2022 has been revised down by 0.7 percentage point since July, reflecting the unexpected real GDP contraction in the second quarter, the IMF report said.国际国币基金组织的报告指出，美国2022年的增长自7月以来被下调了0.7个百分点，反映了第二季度实际GDP的意外收缩。Steering clear of the risks starts with monetary policy staying the course to restore price stability, the IMF report suggested.国际货币基金组织的报告建议，要避免风险，首先要坚持货币政策，恢复价格稳定。The priority in fiscal policy is protecting vulnerable groups through targeted near-term support to alleviate the burden of the cost-of-living crisis felt across the globe. But its overall stance should remain sufficiently tight to keep monetary policy on target, the report said.财政政策的重点是通过有针对性的近期支持来保护弱势群体，以减轻全球生活成本危机的负担。报告说，但其总体立场应保持足够的紧缩，以保持货币政策的目标，。In addition, policies to fast-track the green energy transition will yield long-term payoffs for energy security and the costs of ongoing climate change, it said.此外，报告指出，快速推进绿色能源转型的政策将为能源安全和持续的气候变化成本带来长期回报。In conclusion, it said, successful multilateral cooperation will prevent fragmentation that could otherwise reverse gains in the economic well-being from 30 years of economic integration.最后，该报告表示，成功的多边合作将防止分裂，否则可能会扭转30年来经济一体化所带来的经济上的收益。
